All statistics courtesy of the Niagara Association of Realtors and Mortgage Architects
Niagara’s spring momentum cooled off in May, but not in the way you’d expect. Sales dipped, new listings hit a five-year low for the month, and yet benchmark prices actually ticked up slightly from April. NAR’s Executive Officer called it early “signs of stabilization” — with the caveat that it’s still too soon to know if that holds.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada delivered its fifth consecutive rate hold on June 10, and a long-awaited transit milestone landed in Grimsby. Here’s what May’s numbers mean for Niagara buyers, sellers, and renewers heading into summer.
Source: Niagara Association of REALTORS® / CREA Statistics — May 2026
| METRIC | VALUE | YR/YR CHANGE | NOTE |
| HPI Benchmark Price | $575,300 | ↓ 8.0% yr/yr | ↑ 0.3% mo/mo |
| Single-Family Benchmark | $600,500 | ↓ 8.3% yr/yr | — |
| Townhouse/Row Benchmark | $525,200 | ↓ 6.9% yr/yr | — |
| Apartment Benchmark | $343,200 | ↓ 13.1% yr/yr | — |
| Average Sale Price | $676,261 | ↓ 2.7% yr/yr | — |
| Total Sales (May) | 593 units | ↓ 5.9% yr/yr | ↑ 6.1% mo/mo |
| New Listings | 1,624 | ↓ 18.2% yr/yr | Lowest May total in 5 years |
| Active Listings | 3,242 units | ↓ 14.3% yr/yr | — |
| Months of Inventory | 5.5 months | ↓ from 6.0 (May ’25) | Still buyer’s market territory |
Source: Niagara Association of REALTORS® (NAR) / CREA Statistics, May 2026 report.
The headline: 593 homes sold in May, down 5.9% from a year ago and still well below the five- and ten-year averages. But look closer and the story gets more interesting. New listings fell 18.2% year-over-year to 1,624, the lowest May total in five years. That’s a meaningful supply pullback, and it’s the reason inventory is tightening even as sales stay soft.
On pricing, the regional HPI benchmark actually rose 0.3% month-over-month to $575,300, even though it’s still down 8.0% from May 2025. Single-family homes ($600,500) and townhouses ($525,200) showed the clearest signs of firming up. Apartments are the outlier, still sliding, down 13.1% year-over-year to $343,200, which keeps the condo segment the most buyer-friendly corner of the market.
NAR’s Sarah Hart put it plainly: “Benchmark prices are showing signs of stabilization for one-storey single family homes and townhouse units, although we’ll have to wait a few more months to see if these trends hold.” In other words, this isn’t a turnaround yet, but it’s the first month in a while where the data leans slightly positive instead of slightly negative.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026, the fifth consecutive hold in 2026 (following January, March, and April decisions). Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision balances two competing risks: inflation pressure from elevated oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict, and a domestic economy that’s running weaker than expected (Canadian GDP edged down 0.1% in the first quarter).
A few things worth knowing about where things stand:
For mortgage borrowers: the prime rate remains at approximately 4.45%, largely unchanged since the rate has held since October 2025. Fixed rates from non-bank lenders are still available in the 4% range for insured purchases.
Sources: Bank of Canada — June 10 rate decision | CBC News — BoC holds rate, June 2026 | TD Economics — June 10 rate announcement analysis
If you’ve been tracking the GO Transit expansion story in Niagara, there’s real movement to report. Niagara Region and Metrolinx have completed the Environmental Project Report for the Grimsby GO Station, with the public comment period running from May 16 through June 15, 2026. The formal review process just wrapped up this past week.
Grimsby GO Station would sit on the Lakeshore West line between Hamilton’s Confederation GO Station and the existing St. Catharines stop, with a connecting bus loop for Niagara Region Transit. It’s part of the broader Niagara extension that also includes a proposed station in Beamsville, which Metrolinx’s own business case projects could draw nearly 50,000 net new annual trips by 2041.
This matters for buyers and investors thinking medium-to-long-term. Transit-adjacent communities tend to see outsized demand once stations move from “proposed” to “under construction.” Grimsby just took its clearest step yet toward that next phase. It’s not a reason to rush a purchase decision today, but it’s a factor worth weighing if you’re comparing Grimsby/West Lincoln against other Niagara communities.
Sources: Metrolinx — Grimsby GO Station project update | Niagara Region — Grimsby GO Station | Town of Grimsby — Notice of Commencement
The slowdown in new listings is the one number worth watching closely. If supply keeps tightening through the summer while sales stay roughly flat, the buyer-friendly conditions we’ve seen all year could start to narrow. That’s not a reason to panic — but it is a reason to get your financing in order now rather than waiting. If you haven’t maximized your FHSA contribution room, this is a good month to do it.
Renewers
With the Bank of Canada holding for a fifth straight meeting, renewal math hasn’t shifted much since last update, which itself is useful information. If your mortgage is up for renewal this summer, you’re working with a rate environment that’s been stable since October 2025, giving you a clearer basis for comparing fixed and variable options than buyers had a year or two ago.
Sellers and Move-Up Buyers
The slight month-over-month uptick in single-family and townhouse benchmarks is the first encouraging signal sellers have had in a while. It’s one data point, not a trend, but if you’ve been waiting for the market to firm up before listing, May’s numbers are worth a conversation about timing.
What is the current HPI benchmark price in Niagara?
The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price for the Niagara Region was $575,300 in May 2026, down 8.0% year-over-year but up slightly (0.3%) from April. This is the most reliable price measure because it tracks a consistent “typical” home rather than fluctuating with the mix of homes sold in a given month.
Is Niagara still a buyer’s market in summer 2026?
Yes, though conditions are stabilizing. Months of inventory sit at 5.5, down from 6.0 a year ago, and new listings hit their lowest May total in five years. NAR’s Executive Officer noted benchmark prices are showing early signs of stabilization for single-family and townhouse properties — but cautioned it’s too soon to call it a trend.
What is the Bank of Canada’s current interest rate?
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026 — its fifth consecutive hold. Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision balances the risk of elevated oil-price-driven inflation against a weak domestic growth backdrop. The next scheduled decision is July 15, 2026. The prime rate at major lenders remains at approximately 4.45%.
