June 2026 MLS data | Bank of Canada holds at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision | $187 million in new housing investment lands in Niagara
Read last month’s Market Update here.
June was the strongest sales month Niagara has had this year, and the first in a while where the numbers point in a genuinely encouraging direction. Sales climbed 9% over last June and came in above the five-year average. Inventory tightened. Homes in St. Catharines sold in about a month.
Prices are still soft, and that is the part worth understanding properly rather than reacting to. Here is what June’s data actually shows, what the Bank of Canada’s July decision means for your mortgage, and why two funding announcements this summer matter more for Niagara buyers than the headlines suggested.
Source: Niagara Association of REALTORS and CREA Statistics, June 2026
| METRIC | JUNE 2026 | VS. JUNE 2025 | CONTEXT |
| HPI Benchmark Price | $571,300 | Down 6.5% | Composite, all property types |
| Single-Family Benchmark | $596,100 | Down 6.5% | |
| Townhouse / Row Benchmark | $527,900 | Down 4.7% | Smallest decline of the three |
| Apartment Benchmark | $335,700 | Down 15.2% | Steepest correction in the region |
| Average Sale Price | $676,248 | Down 1.2% | Year to date: $643,224 |
| Total Sales | 651 units | Up 9.0% | 6.1% above the five-year average |
| Year-to-Date Sales | 2,993 units | Down 1.3% | First six months of 2026 |
| New Listings | 1,631 | Down 7.6% | Lowest June total in five years |
| Active Listings | 3,364 units | Down 14.8% | Still 36.8% above the 10-year average |
| Months of Inventory | 5.2 months | Down from 6.6 | Long-run June average is 3.8 |
| Total Dollar Volume | $440.2 million | Up 7.7% |
Source: Niagara Association of REALTORS and CREA Statistics, June 2026 release. All comparisons are year over year unless noted.
Start with sales, because that is where the good news is. 651 homes sold in June, up 9% from June 2025 and 6.1% above the five-year average for the month. Niagara has not been able to say that very often over the past two years. Year to date, sales are still down 1.3%, so the year as a whole has not turned around, but the monthly trend has been building.
Supply is the other half of the story. New listings fell 7.6% to 1,631, the lowest June total in five years. Active listings dropped 14.8% to 3,364. Months of inventory came down to 5.2 from 6.6 a year ago. More buyers competing for fewer listings is exactly the mechanism that eventually puts a floor under prices.
That floor has not arrived yet. The regional benchmark sits at $571,300, down 6.5% from a year ago. But the decline is uneven in a way that matters if you are shopping. Townhouses held up best, down 4.7%. Single-family homes tracked the regional average at 6.5%. Apartments fell 15.2% to $335,700, which is a substantial correction and makes the condo segment the clearest value opportunity in Niagara right now.
Sarah Hart, Executive Officer of the Niagara Association of REALTORS, framed June this way: sales have shown a small resurgence month to month while posting a gain over last year, and on the supply side new listings remain at some of the highest June levels on record as sellers stay motivated to find a buyer.
One caution worth keeping in view: active listings are down sharply year over year, but they are still 36.8% above the ten-year average for June. Niagara is working off an inventory overhang, not running short of homes.
Regional averages hide a lot. St. Catharines homes sold in an average of 31 days in June, the fastest in the region. West Lincoln took 66 days. Below is the full community breakdown from NAR’s June stats package.
| COMMUNITY | BENCHMARK JUNE 2026 | BENCHMARK JUNE 2025 | SALES | AVG. DAYS ON MARKET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Erie | $489,000 | $526,500 | 71 | 59 |
| Grimsby | $674,400 | $725,400 | 35 | 42 |
| Lincoln | $668,000 | $721,300 | 31 | 39 |
| Niagara Falls | $562,300 | $607,600 | 93 | 38 |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | $866,300 | $918,000 | 38 | 46 |
| Pelham | $754,200 | $792,900 | 35 | 32 |
| Port Colborne / Wainfleet | $467,200 | $505,400 | 42 | 58 |
| St. Catharines | $522,900 | $555,800 | 149 | 31 |
| Thorold | $573,300 | $620,800 | 32 | 38 |
| Welland | $495,700 | $526,300 | 79 | 46 |
| West Lincoln | $684,300 | $692,400 | 10 | 66 |
| Niagara Totals | $571,300 | $610,700 | 615 | 45 |
Source: Niagara Association of REALTORS, NAR Stats Package (June data 2026), released July 6, 2026. This community report covers Residential Freehold and Residential Condo and Other property types, excluding multifamily, land and farm. That is a slightly narrower basis than the regional figures above, which is why the sales total here (615) differs from the CREA regional release (651). Both figures are correct for what they measure.
A few things stand out. Niagara-on-the-Lake remains the region’s highest-priced market at $866,300, but it also saw sales nearly double year over year, from 21 to 38, while average days on market dropped from 76 to 46. That is a market clearing inventory. Welland posted 79 sales against 65 a year ago, with new listings down sharply from 232 to 157. Fort Erie also gained, from 56 sales to 71.
On the other side, Lincoln and Grimsby both saw sales slip, and West Lincoln homes are taking 66 days to sell on average, the longest in the region.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026. That is the sixth consecutive hold, and the rate has now been unchanged since October 2025, when the Bank finished a cycle of nine cuts that ran from June 2024.
| RATE | LEVEL | AS OF |
| Bank of Canada overnight rate | 2.25% | Held July 15, 2026 |
| Bank Rate | 2.50% | Held July 15, 2026 |
| Prime rate (major lenders) | 4.45% | Unchanged since October 2025 |
| Lowest 5-year fixed, Big 5 banks (Ontario) | 4.24% | Scotiabank, as of July 16, 2026 |
| Lowest 5-year variable, Big 5 banks (Ontario) | 3.65% | RBC and Scotiabank, as of July 16, 2026 |
| Best available 5-year fixed (broker channel) | 3.94% | As of July 31, 2026 |
| Best available 5-year variable (broker channel) | 3.35% | As of July 31, 2026 |
Sources: Bank of Canada, July 15, 2026 rate announcement. Prime and market rate figures from Ratehub and WOWA, as of July 16 and July 31, 2026 respectively. Rates shown are the lowest published offers and depend on qualification, property type, insurance status and lender conditions.
The Bank’s reasoning is worth understanding, because it explains why fixed and variable rates are behaving differently right now.
For your mortgage, the practical translation is this. Variable rates are stable because they move with prime, and prime is not moving while the Bank holds. Fixed rates are under upward pressure because they follow Government of Canada bond yields, and those yields remain elevated on inflation and geopolitical concerns. The unusual result is that variable rates are currently cheaper than fixed at the best available pricing, which is the reverse of what borrowers got used to during the hiking cycle.
The next scheduled rate decision is September 2, 2026.
Sources: Bank of Canada, July 15 rate decision | Summary of Governing Council deliberations | Ratehub, Ontario mortgage rates
$183 Million for a 492-Unit Co-op on the Hotel Dieu Site
In July, the federal government committed $183 million through the Co-operative Housing Development Program to build a 492-unit affordable co-operative housing development on the former Hotel Dieu Hospital site in downtown St. Catharines. It is the largest affordable co-op project in Niagara’s history and the first new co-op in St. Catharines in 30 years.
The project brings together Elevate Living, the Golden Horseshoe Co-operative Housing Federation and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada, with Niagara Falls based Niacon Ltd. leading construction. St. Catharines council waived up to $743,499 in building permit fees and approved tax rebates through the city’s community improvement plan, and Niagara Region approved matching tax increment funding.
$4.5 Million from the Building Faster Fund
In June, Ontario awarded St. Catharines and Welland a combined $4,506,730 through the third round of the Building Faster Fund, which rewards municipalities that hit at least 80% of their provincially assigned housing targets.
This is the third consecutive year both cities have qualified. The province also extended the deadline for spending Building Faster Fund money to 2028. The funding goes toward the infrastructure that new housing depends on, which is the unglamorous part of supply that tends to determine whether projects actually get built.
Why This Matters If You Are Buying
Neither announcement will change your purchase price this year. What they signal is direction. Niagara’s supply pipeline is being funded at a moment when new listings just hit a five-year low for June. If the region keeps adding supply while demand recovers, that is a healthier balance than the alternative, where tightening inventory meets recovering demand and prices move quickly. For buyers, the practical read is that today’s negotiating room is a real but time-limited feature of this market.
Sources: CBC News, Hotel Dieu co-op housing project | Daily Commercial News, federal co-op funding | Niagara-on-the-Lake Local, Building Faster Fund | CHCH News, Building Faster Fund
If You Are Buying Your First Home
The window is still open, but it is narrowing. Prices are down 6.5% from a year ago and inventory is well above the ten-year norm, so you have choice and room to negotiate. At the same time, new listings just hit a five-year low for June and months of inventory dropped from 6.6 to 5.2. If you have been waiting for prices to fall further, understand that you are also waiting while the supply cushion shrinks. Getting pre-approved now costs you nothing and tells you exactly what you can act on.
If you are looking at condos or apartments specifically, the benchmark in that segment is down 15.2% year over year. That is the largest discount available anywhere in the Niagara market right now.
If You Are Renewing
Your mortgage renewal numbers have been stable for nine months.
With prime holding at 4.45% and the Bank signalling comfort with its current stance, you can compare fixed and variable rates on their merits rather than trying to time a moving target.
The best available variable pricing is currently below the best available fixed pricing, which is unusual and comes down to bond yields staying elevated while the overnight rate holds. Whether that favours you depends on your term length, your risk tolerance and how long you plan to stay.
If your renewal is within 120 days, you can lock a rate hold now and still shop. There is no cost to doing that and no obligation to accept your existing lender’s first offer.
If You Are Selling or Moving Up
June was the best month for sales this year, and days on market in St. Catharines came down to 31. Priced correctly, homes are moving. The regional benchmark is still below last year, so if you are selling and buying in the same market, the two sides largely offset. The specifics depend heavily on which communities and which property types you are moving between, and given how differently apartments and detached homes have behaved this year, that difference is worth running properly before you commit.
The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for the Niagara Region was $571,300 in June 2026, down 6.5% from June 2025. The HPI tracks the price of a typical home rather than moving with whatever mix of properties happened to sell that month, which makes it the more reliable price measure to watch.
There were 651 sales through the Niagara Association of REALTORS MLS System in June 2026, a 9% increase over June 2025. That put sales 6.1% above the five-year average for June, though still 6.6% below the ten-year average.
Conditions still favour buyers, but less than they did a year ago. Months of inventory sat at 5.2 at the end of June, down from 6.6 in June 2025. That is still well above the long-run June average of 3.8 months, so buyers continue to have choice and negotiating room. The direction of travel, though, is toward a tighter market.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026, its sixth consecutive hold. The rate has been unchanged since October 2025. The prime rate at major lenders remains 4.45%. The next scheduled rate decision is September 2, 2026.
Based on June 2026 benchmark prices, Port Colborne and Wainfleet ($467,200), Fort Erie ($489,000), and Welland ($495,700) are the region’s most affordable markets. All three sit well below the regional benchmark of $571,300.
Yes. The apartment benchmark was $335,700 in June 2026, down 15.2% from a year earlier. That is by far the steepest decline of any property type in the region, and it makes the condo and apartment segment the most buyer-friendly part of the Niagara market right now.
| Thinking About Buying or Renewing in Niagara? Tyler Hibbs | Mortgage Agent Level 2, Mortgage Architects. 11 years helping Niagara homeowners, with over 200 five-star reviews. Serving St. Catharines, Welland, Niagara Falls, Grimsby, Fort Erie and the Niagara Region. Book a free consultation at niagaramtgs.com |
